Prof. Takeda “3/31/2015 is the last day of Japan”

Prof. Takeda Kunihiko from Chubu university roughly estimated anyone can no longer live in Japan after 3/31/2015.

According to his explanation, the yearly dose will reach 5mSv/y (External dose and the slight internal dose) in 3 years and 4 months from January of 2012.

He states, he receives radiation data from one of his readers. The person measures radiation three times a day, at work, doorway of house, and the living room in Mie prefecture (500km from Fukushima). Prof. Takeda admits the data is scientific enough.

From the radiation level has been in the increasing trend since last September. In linear equations (y=ax+b), the average from January to March (=b) is 0.10 μSv/h, a is +0.004 μSv/h. y reaches 5mSv/y in 3 years and 3 months, so yearly dose will be over 5mSv/y in 3 years and 4 months from January of 2012, when is 3/31/2015.

Prof. Takeda admits the data was collected by an individual and a and b are calculated by least squares but it’s rational enough.

The reason why radiation level is increasing is not explained.






Français :

Le Pr. Takeda : Le 31 mars 2015 sera le dernier jour du Japon


Le Pr. Takeda Kunihiko de l’université de Chubu estime grossièrement que personne ne pourra plus vivre au Japon après le 31 mars 2015.

Selon son explication, la dose annuelle va atteindre 5 mSv/an (en dose externe en plus de la faible dose interne) 3 ans et 4 mois après janvier 2012.

Il affirme qu’il a reçu des données de radioactivité de l’un de ses lecteurs. La personne mesure la radioactivité trois fois par jour, au travail, dehors, à la porte et dans le séjour de sa maison de la préfecture de Mie (à 500 km de Fukushima). Le Pr. Takeda considère que ces données sont suffisamment scientifiques.

Le niveau de la radioactivité est en augmentation depuis septembre dernier. En équation linéaire (y= ax+b), la moyenne de janvier à mars (=b) est à 0,10 μSv/h, a est +0,004 μSv/an. y atteint 5 mSv/an en 3 ans et 3 mois, donc la dose annuelle sera au-dessus de 5 mSv/an dans 3 ans et 4 mois à compter de janvier 2012, soit le 31 mars 2015.

Le Pr. Takeda admet que les données ont été récoltées par un individu et que a et b sont calculés par les moindres carrés mais que c’est assez rationnel.

La cause de l’augmentation de la radioactivité n’est pas expliquée.


  1. Thank you very much for all the work you do. I have been following your site closely for a while now and it is by far one of the most comprehensive sources of information on this subject matter any where in the world. unfortunately here in America the news is so dumbed down and “distorted” that for all intents and purposes all we get is either the official tepco line, or nothing at all. Keep up the good work and if you can, could you please upload more video and photo’s of related subject matter ……. thank you 🙂

  2. Iori,
    You should do a little more research before publishing some of these ridiculous articles. The other day you claimed people througout Kanto were all sick from the flu with stomacheaches. I actually live here and there is no such phenomenon. The biggest trouble we have is increased traffic accidents. Mie Prefecture is very far from Fukushima and has not such radiation levels, that is absurd. In Tokyo we are somewhere around 1 millisievert per year of background plus Fukushima radiation, unless you find a hotspot somewhere and sit on it 24/7.
    These kinds of ridiculous reports undermine you otherwise great reporting!

    1. “The other day you claimed people througout Kanto were all sick from the flu with stomacheaches.”
      >I didn’t say “all”.

  3. “The reason why radiation level is increasing is not explained”.

    There is no reason why it should decrease. At best, with no more emissions it’d become stable (would decrease because the half-life but at such extremely slow pace that it should be not very noticeable). But emissions continue because Fukushima is in meltdown and is in China syndrome and has not been “caged” like Chernobyl and “extend and pretend” never solved any problem but typically aggravated them and allowing and even promoting the scatter of materials from Fukushima and other contaminated areas is only aggravating everything.

    But you know all that, of course.

    Maybe it is true that Japan will die off a year from now (sounds a bit too exaggerated: adults resist radiation much better than children) but my real concern is well beyond Japan: if the “monster” is not contained somehow, it will slowly but steadily contaminate all Earth, certainly all the North Pacific Ocean. As not many are really concerned about restricting radiation export, Japanese and other contaminated products are also travelling around the World.

    This is truly bad: if global warming, general contamination and mass extinctions were not enough, now we have a major source of radiation forever spitting to the atmosphere and seas and even human-made markets. I feel very sorry for Japan but I am concerned about all Earth.

    And let’s hope no other nuclear reactor explodes: I live some 200 km away from Garoña NPP, a reactor designed exactly like Fukushima (but just one reactor), whose life has been extended once and again in spite of all risks, actual pollution (I know people from the district and all have genetic problems from birth) and all the protests.

    My only consolation is that I’m already old enough to disdain death up to a point but what about my nephews and nieces, what about the children of my friends and neighbors…?

  4. The reason the radiation level is increasing is obvious. It’s cumulative being that any radiation that falls is going to continue to give off radiation, in addition to whatever else adds to it as more radiation in accumulated.

  5. 3 years 500km from Fukushima left to leave Japan.
    1 year left in Tokyo ?
    I think you should seriously investigate the Russian offer from last year if you want to help save your people, because it looks like the only option for the Japanese people to survive.

  6. This is very sad! And not just Japan…..but if the radiation keeps increasing then obviously Hawaii and parts of the US also might become too radioactive to live in. If #4 explodes, the whole NOrthern Hemisphere could go.

    A scientist I know said that the radiation level of the world would be much higher in the future from radioactive waste and accidents, releases of gases and such… people will just live shorter lives and get cancer sooner.

    And all those TV programs they watched and hairdryers they used, it was all (almost all) unnecessary.

  7. This is totally absurd. And look at all the morons commenting who don’t even live in Japan and have never even measured the radiation. YOU HAVE TO COMPARE BEFORE AND AFTER which noone actually does. There is no accumulation of radiation in Japan, this is just nonsense. The radiation is monitored by MEXT by the way and there is no indication that it is increasing exponentially. According to my geiger counter above ground radiation is about 0.08 to .01 in Tokyo. Always has been since last year after the accident. How is this accumulation? I get the same measurements in USA! Of course certain areas of Japan are now contaminated and I agree the evacuation zone should be larger, but that is not the enire country of Japan. The person in Mie is measuring normal background radiation. Is there any proof radiation from Fukushima is somehow getting to Mie in increasing doses? None.

    Of course, if Unit no. 4 goes Japan is doomed, I agree. But there is a lot of unsubstantiated scare mongering that is just speculation and not rooted in rigorous science. Connecting illnesses and radiation is another area that requires some imagination. Surely many people in Fukushima are suffering health due to the accident, but mutated flowers and people with stomache aches could have other causes. Not everything automatically connects to Fukushima.

  8. Shalom (peace)…
    I see your profile picture and you look so sad and tired that i feel very sad too.
    I don´t want to ofend you and you brave people of Japan but please claim in the name of Yahashua Ha Mashiaj to have mercy of you, your family, your country and this planet.
    Worst things are going to happen very soon to the entire world and we have to learn to pray to the only Elohim(G-od) ; Yahwheh / Yahshua.
    I am praying for you, your family and your country right now, but you need to have conscience that there is something more else than science and technology.
    Shalom U Brajot (peace and blessing)
    Monterrey, Mexico

  9. The average annual dose considered safe for nuclear workers is 50mSv. Exposure to 5 mSv annually is not a reason to evacuate.

    400 mSv in a short exposure will cause radiation sickness quickly. This would be an exposure level requiring immediate evacuation. This link explains radiation exposure levels. It is not scientific, but approximate.

    Millions of slow deaths due to exposure over years is guaranteed for the Japanese.

    Worldwide contamination is inevitable.

    We have been fools to allow nuclear reactors into our world. We are all guilty of ignorance and arrogance.

    Our children will now suffer for centuries.

    The animals that we share Earth, will suffer. Is having electricity for the last 30 years so important that we destroy our world?

    God save us all.

  10. He “admits” it is scientific enough and that its “rational enough”! Hilarious. This professor does not actually make measurements himself, but relies on his “reader” for data? That is so absurd as beyond comment, what kind of scientific experiment is this? As I stated earlier, readings in Tokyo above ground are the SAME AS USA.

    But let’s say his calculations are accurate, and that radiation is gradually increasing. This also MAKES NO SENSE WHATSOEVER. The mass of radiation was released in March of 2011. We now know that amount may have been 90 percent as much as Chernobyl releases, according to highest foreign researcher estimates. Even the J Gov admits about half of Chernobyl releases. At that time for sure radiation increased from normal background levels to higher levels especially in Tohoku and Kanto. But there is no logical explanation for how radiation could increase if there is not a comparative amount of radiation also being released. Tepco is continuing to dump radioactive water into the ocean; gamma radiation continues to be emitted from the plant but not at levels anything like during March of 2011; incineration of radioactive debris could increase localized radioactivity (but no one has actually presented any data to affirm or refute this); Fukushima unit no. 4 could explode releasing 85 Chernobyls worth of radiation (a disturbingly likely possibility if there is another large earthquake); otherwise there is no explanation for how radiation in Japan could increase beyond habitability.

    There is no comparison of data between this professors absurd claims and anything available from MEXT or other sources.

    The situation is bad enough without nutjobs and scare mongers trying to get attention for themselves on the internet.

    1. I wish I could have introduced the back ground of this article. Prof. Takeda is relatively conservative about radiation effect. It matters that even Prof. Takeda gave out such a severe prediction.

      1. Mochizuki,

        It was ‘science’ that led to the worst environmental and potentially human disaster in Japan’s history.

        You are not a nitwit or a scaremonger trying to get attention on the internet. You were the messenger.

        If someone disagrees with Dr. Taneka’s warning they should take issue with Dr. Taneka and not you.

        Peace and love, Mochizuki,


    2. readings in Tokyo above ground are the SAME AS USA?????????????

      That is so absurd as beyond comment!!!

    3. People like you said it was a cool idea to fly a half-built plane and crash into enemy ships during World War 2. Of course people who said that never did it themselves, recruiting and forcing younger people to do that.

      After the war was over, such people lived well through their prewar connections. Such is life.

      1. Tambora, it’s amazing that racism toward a people and country you likely have no firsthand knowledge of, and anger about a war that is more than half a century in the past can have anything to do with an environmental disaster such as this. I can’t imagine that racists such as yourself will change their minds easily, but try to remember that the actions of some people (even if it was a majority at the time) over fifty years ago don’t mean that innocent children, and farmers, and others trying to make a life deserve to suffer.

        And Concrete Man, how is anything this professor, or Mr. Mochizuki is saying scaremongering? Do you have all the facts? Does the professor? Does Mr. Mochizuki, or even the government? No. It’s called sharing information. Some entities, such as the government and Tepco, choose not to share enough information. Others may share exaggerated information. The point is, that you can only make the final decision for yourself based on the differing opinions and “facts” out there. Taking such a vehement stand against “scaremongers” just makes you sound like a shill for someone trying to hide the truth.

        Mr. Mochizuki, although I read the original article in Japanese, and try to keep up with both Japanese and English sources, I think what you’re doing here is noble. Thanks for your good work, and please keep it up.

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About this site

This website updates the latest news about the Fukushima nuclear plant and also archives the past news from 2011. Because it's always updated and added live, articles, categories and the tags are not necessarily fitted in the latest format.
I am the writer of this website. About page remains in 2014. This is because my memory about 311 was clearer than now, 2023, and I think it can have a historical value. Now I'm living in Romania with 3 cats as an independent data scientist.
Actually, nothing has progressed in the plant since 2011. We still don't even know what is going on inside. They must keep cooling the crippled reactors by water, but additionally groundwater keeps flowing into the reactor buildings from the broken parts. This is why highly contaminated water is always produced more than it can circulate. Tepco is planning to officially discharge this water to the Pacific but Tritium is still remaining in it. They dilute this with seawater so that it is legally safe, but scientifically the same amount of radioactive tritium is contained. They say it is safe to discharge, but none of them have drunk it.


April 2012