On the radio program, “Tanemaki journal” on MBS, Dr. Koide from Kyoto University stated that Tepco’s assumption to tell there is still 37 cm to go has no basis.
Dr. Koide has been warning melt-out since May, yet he admitted that he can not assume where the melted fuel is now because human-beings have never gone through such a crisis.
He estimates the melted fuel may stop about 5~10 meters deep under ground because melted fuel becomes larger as it contains concrete, the body of container vessel etc. It starts from 2800C, but the heat will decrease gradually.
However, he admits even this assumption does not have scientific basis.
Dr. Koide states, he suspects the container vessel has already been broken. Tepco assumes there is still 37cm to the wall of container vessel, but it is baseless.
They need data to assume, such as temperature, pressure, etc, but there is no data to consider.
He does not know on what “facts” they based their assumptions regarding the situation.
Even in the Three Mile Island accident, they took 7 years to confirm melt down happened.
It is considered to take much longer to know what was happening, and it would take even longer to settle it down.