Earthquake Research Committee of the government published the possibility of various regions that may be hit by an earthquake larger than scale 6- in 30 years, which was revised by considering the effect 311.
The results are below. (Possibility of being hit by an earthquake larger than scale 6- in 30 years)
Chiba city : 75.7%
Yokohama city : 71%
Mito city : 62.3%
Saitama city : 27.3%
Tokyo : 23.2%
Shizuoka city : 89.7%
Tsu city : 87.4%
Nara city : 70.2%
Kohchi city : 66.9%
Tokushima city : 64.2%
Osaka city : 62.8%
However, they considered only 110 active faults from 2,000 active faults all around in Japan.
Before 311, the earthquake possibility in Sendai was 4%, also, it was 0.9% in Fukushima city, 0.7% in Morioka city.
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Français :
La probabilité que la ville de Chiba soit frappée par un séisme 6- d’ici 30 ans est de 75,7 %
Le Comité de Recherche sur les Séismes du gouvernement a publié les probabilités de séismes supérieurs à 6- dans les 30 ans, chose qui a été revue en prenant en compte les effets du 11-3.
Les résultats sont les suivants (Probabilité de séisme > 6- d’ici 30 ans, par ville) :
Chiba : 75.7%
Yokohama : 71%
Mito : 62.3%
Saitama : 27.3%
Tokyo : 23.2%
Shizuoka : 89.7%
Tsu : 87.4%
Nara : 70.2%
Kohchi : 66.9%
Tokushima : 64.2%
Osaka : 62.8%
Toutefois, ils n’ont pris en compte que 110 des 2 000 failles actives connues au Japon.
Avant le 11-3, la probabilité de séisme était de 4 % pour Sendai, elle était de 0,9 % pour la ville de Fukushima, de 0,7 % pour celle de Morioka.
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OFICIUL POSTAL BUCURESTI 22 ROMANIA CASUTA POSTALA 110
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Saw in the news that Hamaoka has decided that their prior plan for a 19 meter seawall for their plant was insufficient. They are raising it to 22 meter.
Can you imagine. Trusting a 22 meter seawall (and gates that can close correctly in time – after having just been rocked by a massive earthquake themselves) to prevent the utter anihilation of the world’s third largest economy?
Seawall or not, if you are expecting a quake capable of generating a tsunami that might need a 22 meter seawall, you probably shouldn’t be operating a nuclear plant there – especially when your recent history shows that your country is incompetent to effectively regulate their nuclear operators.
Shut it down. Keep it down. Walls cannot provide enough protection.
if you are expecting a quake capable of generating a tsunami
that might need a 22 meter seawall,
you probably shouldn’t be operating a nuclear plant there
you pretty much said it all
I don’t beleive in the theory of “active faults”.
The reason is that faults are moving as land is moving.
Some faults will become extinct and some faults will be created as Japan moves in different directions. Eventually, some day, all the active faults will stop to be active and there will be only new faults.
Japan is trying to have some of the active faults recorded as inactive.
What is wrong is the not only these faults might be be active, but that new faults can appear anywhere at any time.
It is irresponsible to base all sismic risks and activities to knowN faults because there can also be sismic actitivities where no fault existed.