Settlement report 5/20/2012

Donation : 44.00USD

Expense : 0.00USD

Left in hat : 44.00USD


Goal : 2,000.00 USD (My previous salary in Japan)

Current total : 884.50 USD

To go : 1,115.5USD


Thank you for your support !

I was analyzing the seismic information from 311 to May 2012. I was trying to find some pattern of the earthquake. I had some hypothesis.

1. Most of the earthquake might occur from 4AM to 6AM.

2. Frequency of the earthquake around Fukushima Nakadori, where is beside Fukushima plants have a different pattern from other aftershocks.

3. Average magnitude is different from epicenter to epicenter.


I took 6 hours and after all, none of my hypothesis was right.  I found no pattern in the historical earthquakes.

This is why I posted less than usual yesterday. Sorry.


Have a good new week.



  1. Iori it may be hard for you to make an estimate because it is difficult to determine which areas have suffered the most faultline stress fractures. You need to more clearly determine which way the seismic waves are traveling along the faults. Because Japan currently has many active you also need to determine if it’s a normal fault actvitiy, a thrust(reverse) fault action, or a strike-slip(lateral) fault action. Or all of these activities happening at different times along each of the fault lines.

    Make sure you focus isn’t just on the Median Tectonic Line. You need to include the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line, and the Tanakura Tectonic Line. If there has been new activity in the other lines, new fault lines may have been made active with the multiple stress fractures/pressure from the earthqauke swarms.

    1. @ Grace, I really wonder why you ask Iori to do the EQ analyses and predictions!!
      He is a reporter, not a researcher, or is he?. There are hundreds, thousands of ambitious, clever, specialised people in this field: they are the one who should do the job.
      You seem to know quite a lot about these faults and pressure/fractures. You might give it a try!
      So thanks to those who will warn the population about future EQs…

  2. Hey Moki, like you, I have spent a lot of time trying to identify a “pattern” or rhythm to these types of events and also like you, I have yet to be able an establish a working model. The biggest problem that I have is in the fact that there are just too many variables, and not enough “real-time” data. What is needed (imo) is a space-based, (multi-spectrum) telescope that has the ability to look at (and through) the entire planet. This would give us the ability to look at the planet as a whole and calculate the “stresses” on entire tectonic plates. This could also be done using a series of smaller space based telescopes. Also when trying to calculate all of this remember to take into account other planetary forces that also might be at play.

  3. There is some seismic data available from the sensors inside the reactor buildings at Fukushima Daiiachi. It’s interesting as timing information is quite precise, and the magnitude of the quake can be compared to that of the later explosions, which may give some clues about structural damage. It also shows that the Unit4 explosion was rather larger than many people are aware.

    If you don’t have this data, reply to this comment and I will try to get it to you.

  4. Dear iori Mushizuky ,
    i would like donate something to you but i will not do it by internet.
    please send me on this mail a number account or adress or whatever where i can send a “cheque” or make a “virement”(bank to bank).
    in waiting , lot of thanks for your work and courage !

Comments are closed.

About this site

This website updates the latest news about the Fukushima nuclear plant and also archives the past news from 2011. Because it's always updated and added live, articles, categories and the tags are not necessarily fitted in the latest format.
I am the writer of this website. About page remains in 2014. This is because my memory about 311 was clearer than now, 2023, and I think it can have a historical value. Now I'm living in Romania with 3 cats as an independent data scientist.
Actually, nothing has progressed in the plant since 2011. We still don't even know what is going on inside. They must keep cooling the crippled reactors by water, but additionally groundwater keeps flowing into the reactor buildings from the broken parts. This is why highly contaminated water is always produced more than it can circulate. Tepco is planning to officially discharge this water to the Pacific but Tritium is still remaining in it. They dilute this with seawater so that it is legally safe, but scientifically the same amount of radioactive tritium is contained. They say it is safe to discharge, but none of them have drunk it.


May 2012